The G7's 60% target is ambitious but not unrealistic — provided governments treat it as a floor that demands sustained action rather than a headline that substitutes for it. The architecture is clearer than it has ever been.
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The recent deals between the United States and Cambodia, Malaysia, and Thailand demonstrate the Trump Administration’s interest in cultivating broader relationships in Asia through critical minerals dealmaking, marking a rapid expansion of U.S. critical minerals diplomacy in the region. Whether these agreements translate into sustained cooperation and real project delivery will depend on follow-through, financing, and the ability to reconcile differing priorities among partners.
The new United States-Australia Minerals Framework marks the next phase of a partnership that has been steadily deepening for years, and builds on sustained cooperation that was initiated by the first Trump administration. The Framework calls for increased collaboration, potential strategic stockpiles and reserves, and price floors, but many of these policy tools are still in early stages, and key decisions lie ahead.
China's recent expansion of export controls to super hard materials, medium and heavy rare earth elements (REEs), REE production equipment, and high-density lithium-ion batteries and battery materials highlights China's desire to institutionalize control over global supply chains and the dangerous vulnerabilities driving long-term diversification and resilience efforts among allied economies.
Primary aluminum is indispensable to U.S. national defense, critical for fighter jets, Navy vessels, missile systems, and other technologies. With only one domestic alumina refinery operating, the Atalco facility in Louisiana, America faces a single-point-of-failure risk in its defense supply chain.
Expected copper shortfalls in the coming decade create both an opportunity and a warning: rising demand could incentivize new supply, but failure to meet it will deepen future constraints. The Section 232 investigation puts actions on the table to remedy the situation, but China’s strategic smelting overcapacity will remain a barrier. However, whether the tariff regime will ultimately create a signal to invest in copper refining remains to be seen.
Aluminum scrap must be prioritized as a strategic asset, and we must reconsider recycling practices and policies concerning secondary aluminum—not only to meet increasing demand, but to prevent this valuable resource from flowing to our competitors or adversaries.
A new trade deal with Indonesia could exempt the US from the country's current export ban on critical minerals. It could redirect meaningful volumes of material—but will only matter if the US is able to build the capacity to transform the raw ore.
Watch the SAFE Center for Critical Minerals Strategy's recent webinar which convened experts from the Department of the Interior, Energy, and Defense for a webinar examining the U.S. government’s many critical minerals and materials lists to get clarity about how various departments determine what gets included on these lists and how the different methodologies may change in the future.
Lying on the abyssal plains of oceans at depths of 3,500-6,000 meters, polymetallic nodules contain essential minerals used in the electric vehicle batteries fueling the energy transition. Enriched in manganese, nickel, copper, and cobalt, nodule fields of interest have been identified in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ), Penrhyn Basin, and Peru Basin of the Pacific Ocean as well as in the north Indian Ocean. Reserves of certain critical minerals found in the CCZ alone have been estimated to surpass global terrestrial reserves.
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