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Copper Tariffs: Upsides, Unknowns, National Security Considerations, and the Potential for a New Smelter?
Expected copper shortfalls in the coming decade create both an opportunity and a warning: rising demand could incentivize new supply, but failure to meet it will deepen future constraints. The Section 232 investigation puts actions on the table to remedy the situation, but China’s strategic smelting overcapacity will remain a barrier. However, whether the tariff regime will ultimately create a signal to invest in copper refining remains to be seen.
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